NFIB Utah has released its commentary on the its parent organization’s monthly Small Business Economic Trends report, also known as the Optimism Index. The new report showed minor improvement in some categories but within a backdrop of a record 51-year high in uncertainty leading up to the 2024 elections.
“With the election over, small-business owners will begin to feel less uncertain about future business conditions,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. “Although optimism is on the rise on Main Street, small-business owners are still facing unprecedented economic adversity. Low sales, unfilled jobs openings and ongoing inflationary pressures continue to challenge our Main Streets, but owners remain hopeful as they head toward the holiday season.”
According to NFIB Utah, “Greatly improving matters in Utah was the re-election of Gov. Spencer Cox,” whom NFIB Utah called a “true and proven friend of Main Street enterprises.”
The local organization also touted the 20 percent small-business deduction which will be debated in the upcoming congressional session. “It could provide continued relief if made permanent,” NFIB Utah said. On Nov. 7, NFIB launched an advertising campaign aimed at reminding the new Congress and administration that it should be Priority No. 1 for them to make the small-business deduction permanent.
The Optimism Index found a net negative 20 percent of all small-business owners (seasonally adjusted) reported higher nominal sales in the past three months, down three points from September and the lowest reading since July 2020. It also showed a seasonally adjusted net 31 percent reported raising compensation, down one point from September. The last time it was this low was April 2021.
The net percent of owners expecting higher real sales volumes rose five points to a net negative 4 percent (seasonally adjusted), the highest reading of this year. A net 5 percent of owners reported paying a higher rate on their most recent loan, down seven points from September and the lowest reading since January 2022.
Thirty-five percent (seasonally adjusted) of all owners reported job openings they could not fill in the current period, up one point from September.
Twenty-three percent of owners reported that inflation was their single most important problem in operating their business (higher input and labor costs), unchanged from September and remaining the top issue.
NFIB’s monthly SBET report is used by the Federal Reserve, congressional leaders, administration officials and state legislatures across the nation and is generally regarded as the bellwether on the health and welfare of Main Street enterprises. Formerly known as the National Federation of Independent Businesses, NFIB was established more than 80 years ago.
