Confidence dips a bit as holiday season arrives

Following a slight uptick of Utah’s consumer sentiment in October, the measure dropped in November. The Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute’s Survey of Utah Consumers index fell from 66.0 in October to 64.1 in November.

But study authors still found room for optimism. While a similar drop in sentiment occurred last year at this time, the holiday season was extremely strong — even given supply chain problems, the omicron variant{mprestriction ids="1,3"}, labor shortages and rising inflation.

“As Utah and the nation head into what is arguably the most important consumer season of all, sentiment slightly dropped in both the U.S. and Utah in November,” said Phil Dean, chief economist at the Gardner Institute. “We witnessed a similar drop in sentiment last year at this time and yet still experienced an extremely strong holiday season. I expect another strong holiday shopping season in Utah this year.”

A similar survey, the University of Michigan’s Survey of Consumers, also found sentiment decreased from October (59.9) to November (56.8) among Americans nationwide.

The Utah Consumer Sentiment Survey uses comparable questions to the Michigan, which polls the nation as a whole to arrive at its index number. Both surveys include a random sample of consumers, including demographic questions to assess the representativeness of the sample.

Utah’s survey of includes five questions concerning current and expected future economic conditions. These questions are identical to those included in the University of Michigan’s survey. Two of these questions refer to business or economic conditions in the country as a whole (rather than in one’s home state, for example). The Gardner survey supplements these two questions with alternative versions that refer to the state of Utah rather than the whole United States.

The full results of the survey are available online at the Gardner Institute website, https://gardner.utah.edu.{/mprestriction}