County jobs to outpace population as state grows to 5.5 million by 2060

By Brice Wallace

Utah’s population will balloon to nearly 5.5 million by the year 2060, and the number of jobs in Salt Lake County will outpace population growth during that time, according to a study by the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute.

The projections show Utah’s population growing from the current 3.3 million. Employment, which stood as low as 687,159 in 1980, now is at about 2.1 million and will reach nearly 3.5 million in 2060. The largest increases will be in construction, professional and technical services and health.

Most of that growth will be concentrated in Salt Lake and Utah counties, which will account for two-thirds of statewide job increases. Projections call for manufacturing employment to jump nearly 32 percent in Salt Lake County and 20 percent in Utah County, while professional, scientific and technical service industry employment is expected to balloon nearly 49 percent in Salt Lake County and 29 percent in Utah County.

Benefiting the state is that its working-age population “remains fairly stable throughout this time,” with employment growth projected in 28 of the 29 counties, according to Mallory Bateman, director of demographic research at the Gardner Institute. In some states, the working-age population is shrinking, compared to their older population.

“I think part of why we maintain that stellar working-age population is because we have an economy that continues to grow and diversify throughout the projection horizon,” she said during an online media roundtable to discuss the report.

The number of jobs will outrun population growth in Salt Lake and Summit counties, while Millard County is expected to see a job decrease, in part because of power plant closures. While Utah County will experience the most population growth by 2060, Salt Lake County will see the most job growth. Salt Lake County currently accounts for 47 percent of jobs in Utah.

The study indicates that Salt Lake County will add about 484,000 people to reach 1.7 million by 2060 and add 545,600 jobs during that time. Utah County will add 674,000 residents to reach 1.3 million and add 346,571 jobs. Washington County will add 282,417 people and about 110,000 jobs, while Davis County will grow by 216,736 people and 114,031 jobs.

Industry growth will vary throughout different parts of the state. Growth in professional, scientific and technical services jobs will be concentrated in Salt Lake County and the Wasatch Front in general.

“When we’re talking about these very urbanized counties … a lot of that projected job growth is going to be focused on two to six counties across the state,” said Max Backlund, senior research associate.

Backlund said Utah has historically been a goods producer and manufacturer, but the shift will be toward urbanized professional and technical services. Manufacturing employment will be “not quite as high as it’s been in the past,” he said. “That’s been a traditional industry in Utah that we’ve had a lot of important growth there, so that will be changing as we look forward to the future.”

The addition of 1.3 million jobs by 2060 “is a very positive change here,” he said, noting that construction will lead all industries in job increases. “As a very fast-growing state, that makes a lot of sense,” Backlund said. “We’re seeing a lot of construction and growth currently and we expect that to continue.”

Researchers cautioned that the projections for both population and job growth could change because of power plant closures, another Olympic Games, and development taking place at Point of the Mountain.

The Gardner Institute updates the projections every four years and provides the information so that communities and organizations throughout the state can use it to make informed decisions about their future needs. The report is available at https://gardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/LongTermProj-Jan2022.pdf?x71849.