Are we better than fully employed?

Most economists say an unemployment rate of 3 percent or lower means effective full employment. The Federal Reserve considers a base unemployment rate of 5 percent to 5.2 percent as full employment.

So, what would a 1.9 percent jobless rate indicate? That’s Utah current unemployment rate, according to figures released last week by the Department of Workforce Services (DWS). The figure means that approximately 31,800 Utahns are out of work, most of whom are not actively seeking employment, officials say.

“As Utah’s economy progressed through 2021, the most striking theme was dwindling labor availability,” said Mark Knold, chief economist at DWS. “Each month the unemployment rate moved lower and lower, finally sinking last month into historic territory. The state’s unemployment rate is now below 2.0 percent for the first time ever. This is uncharted territory in terms of such a low unemployment rate and gauging how much lower it can conceivably go.”

The December national unemployment rate also continued to decline, sitting at 3.9 percent at month’s end.

In keeping with the department’s recent practice of comparing current employment data with that of two years ago due to statistical anomalies caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, Utah’s nonfarm payroll employment for December was increased an estimated 3.7 percent over the past 24 months. The state’s economy added a cumulative 59,200 jobs since December 2019, bringing the current employment level to about 1,646,900.

Utah’s December private-sector employment recorded a two-year expansion of 5.0 percent, DWS reported. Eight of Utah’s 10 major private-sector industry groups posted net two-year job gains, led by trade, transportation and utilities (up 22,300 jobs); professional and business services (up 15,200 jobs); construction (up 11,500 jobs); and manufacturing (up 7,900 jobs). The two industry groups with less employment than two years ago are natural resources and mining with a loss of 800 jobs and other services with a loss of 200 jobs.