Utah's confidence rebounds after 2 months of decline

Utah’s consumers weren’t too sure about their economic future over the summer as the delta variant caused a dramatic surge in the COVID-19 pandemic. The result was a sharp decline in the Utah Consumer Confidence Survey in July and August.

But the survey, conducted by the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute at the University of Utah, measured a modest gain in September. The uptick mirrored the national Consumer Confidence Index conducted by the University of Michigan.

“Both indices peaked this past March and April as COVID-19 vaccinations became widely available,” said Juliette Tennert, chief economist at the Gardner Institute. “Confidence waned during the summer months as it became clear the pandemic was still very much with us. The recent increase bodes well for economic activity this fall and winter.”

The Utah Consumer Confidence Survey was as high as 96.4 in April and 96.0 in May before tumbling to 93.6 in June, 87.3 in July and 80.9 in August. September signaled an end to the downslide with an 83.0 reading. The national confidence level fell to 70.3 in August after climbing as high as 88.3 in the spring. It climbed back to 72.8 in September.

The Utah Consumer Confidence Survey uses comparable questions to the University of Michigan’s Survey of Consumers. The questions measure residents’ views of present and future economic conditions. Both surveys include a random sample of consumers, including demographic questions to assess the representativeness of the sample.

In general, an index score of 100 on either the Utah and national surveys indicates that an equal number of respondents answered the five questions favorably as unfavorably. For example, a score of 115 means the “favorable” replies outnumber the “unfavorable” replies by 15 percentage points. Neutral responses such as “about the same” do not figure in the index scoring.