If Utah can reach a COVID-19 immunity level of 70 percent through vaccination, it would decrease the number of statewide COVID-19 cases by 94.7 percent, according to a new study released by Epistemix, a computational modeling software company that develops simulations to model the spread of diseases. The study demonstrates the difference between a 50 percent immunity rate and a 70 percent immunity rate in number of new cases. Utah’s projected reduction in cases due to vaccination is among the highest in the nation.
The report analyzes data on a state-by-state basis and highlights the states that need to prioritize reaching the 70 percent vaccination threshold. It ranks Utah as the fourth-most positively impacted by reaching the higher vaccination rate, following New York, Florida and North Carolina.
“Now is a vital time to reach immunity thresholds that would allow life to safely return to normal in Utah,” said John Cordier, CEO of Epistemix. “There is a herd immunity gap in the state that will impede a safe return to normalcy. Our epidemiological simulations show that if Utah is able to reach 70 percent immunity, their total number of COVID-19 infections would decrease by 94.7 percent.”
The data takes into account variants of concern, population density and immunity waning over time. The mathematic model shows that at 50 percent immunity, the state would average 572 cases a week. At 70 percent immunity, the state would average 26 cases a week.
