'Transmission index' replaces color-coding to track state's COVID risk

Utah state officials have introduced a new system to track the severity of the COVID-19 pandemic in the state. The new “transmission index” represents a shift away from the previous color-coded system under the Utah Leads Together plan. Each week, health department officials will look at three key metrics for each county: case rates, percent positivity and statewide intensive care unit usage. Each county will then be automatically categorized into the high, moderate or low transmission risk category.

“We’re having one of the worst outbreaks in the country, and this is unacceptable,” Gov. Gary Herbert said at the event introducing the new tracking system. “It’s really time for a new game plan.”

Herbert also announced Utah’s transition from a state of emergency and into a public health emergency designation. That will allow state leaders to focus on public health aspects of the pandemic, he said. “We the people can control the outcome of this issue.”

The new system places an emphasis on casual social gatherings among family and friends, which are thought to be a major source of COVID-19 spread during Utah’s recent surge, according to health department interim executive director Rich Saunders.

“The virus doesn’t care how much we love to be around each other,” Saunders said.

Casual social gatherings are different from public gatherings, which include settings such as live events, movie theaters, sporting events, weddings, recreation and entertainment. Casual social gatherings also don’t include formal religious events or “events with organizational oversight,” such as work events, according to the state’s guidelines. Those smaller, casual social gatherings are thought to be responsible for a significant amount of the COVID-19 spread Utah has experienced in recent weeks. 

There are three key statistics health officials will look at to determine a Utah county’s transmission level and decide when a county can move to a different categorization. Each week, state health officials will assess every county’s seven-day average positive test percentage and 14-day case rate per 100,000 people, as well as statewide ICU usage, according to the new guidelines. Counties are rated at the high, moderate or low level if two out of the three metrics fall under the criteria for a certain level.