In 2006, then-Governor Jon M. Huntsman asked each department in the state government to participate in a project called Utah 2030. Facing the demographic reality that the number of Utahns over the age of 65 would double by the year 2030, state agencies were tasked with exploring how an aging population would impact their services and resources, and to provide solutions to mitigate strains on everything from housing to healthcare to banking to transportation, as well as ideas to keep older Utahns engaged, involved and contributing to the community and economy.
In 2006, then-Governor Jon M. Huntsman asked each department in the state government to participate in a project called Utah 2030. Facing the demographic reality that the number of Utahns over the age of 65 would double by the year 2030, state agencies were tasked with exploring how an aging population would impact their services and resources, and to provide solutions to mitigate strains on everything from housing to healthcare to banking to transportation, as well as ideas to keep older Utahns engaged, involved and contributing to the community and economy.
“The Utah 2030 Project was designed to be a top-line look at all the things Utah could do to prepare for the aging boom,” said Alan Ormsby, who was involved in the establishment of the Utah Commission on Aging and currently serves as state director for AARP Utah.
The potential issues and proposed solutions were as varied as the population itself.
The Department of Health, for example, identified a potential impact on its chronic disease program. The plan for addressing this possible impact included education and intervention for seniors to promote good nutrition, physical activity and avoidance of tobacco to help adults age healthier. They also proposed to provide information to seniors about preventing injury; encourage seniors to receive flu and pneumonia immunizations; and promote regular screenings for cancer, high blood pressure and cholesterol.
The Department of Public Safety identified aging drivers as a major concern, citing national traffic studies that show a general slowing of reaction times, diminished eyesight and reduced physical mobility for drivers over the age of 55.
Their proposed plan included a potential partnership with AARP to promote and expand their Driver Safety Program for drivers age 50 and older; monitoring legislative proposals, such as mandatory driver license office visits for renewal of drivers age 75 and older; providing driver license examiners with additional training on older driver issues; and promoting a public information and education program focusing on self-regulation by the aging driver.
The Governor’s Office of Economic Development recommended programs to help recruit and retain older employees in companies and organizations across the state, as well as a campaign to target senior citizen tourism. Many agencies experienced great success implementing their proposals, Ormsby said. For example, the Department of Commerce increased education and outreach to address elder fraud with a program called "Know The Red Flags." And many agencies’ proposals included actions and plans that would have been implemented anyway.
Each agency’s assessment and proposal was compiled into a report and submitted to the Utah State Legislature in 2007.
And yet, despite this effort, 10 years after the launch of Utah 2030, the state still remains largely unprepared to address the needs of a rapidly aging population.
Some issues that were identified 10 years ago are no longer concerns, Ormsby said. The Department of Transportation was concerned about road quality and traffic signage but autonomous cars could make that a non-issue in as little as five years.
“The issues that we perceived 10 or 12 years ago now may or may not matter,” Ormsby said.
Another part of the challenge, according to Robert Ence, executive director of the University of Utah’s Commission on Aging, where Utah 2030 now resides, is Utah’s unusual demographic landscape. Utah has one of the fastest-growing populations in the country by percentage, and by 2050 the 80-plus population will be the fastest-growing demographic in the state.
“We had demographic information out there that started to tell a unique story,” Ence said. “When you talk about what the issues are for the future, you look not just at the sheer numbers but also at the dependency ratio.”
People under the age of 17 and over the age of 65 make up what is known as the “dependent” population. In 2006, when Utah 2030 was launched, the state’s dependency ratio was about 60/40, meaning two out of every five people were economically or otherwise supporting the dependent population, as well as themselves. Currently, the dependency ratio is slightly higher than the national average, at 70/30. By 2050, Ence said, 80 percent to 82 percent of the state’s population will be considered dependent, meaning one person will be providing economic and other support for every five people in the state. The value of caregiving currently provided by friends and family in Utah is $4 billion.
“This aging cohort is huge. Utah is going to be facing some very difficult challenges, but also some amazing opportunities,” Ormsby said.
One immediate impact is on the state’s economy and business community, as Utahns are likely to work full-time past the age of 65, and to re-enter the workforce part or full time after retirement. “It does create a demand for older workers,” Ence said. “You need to make sure you have an environment, businesses and an economy that allows people over 65 to step back into the workforce.”
With such a small segment of the population responsible for taking care of such a large segment, businesses also need to be prepared to provide respite and flexibility for caregivers, as well as avenues for younger and mid-career employees to save for their own retirement.
If companies are not smart about providing these incentives for older and mid-career employees, the state could face a labor shortage that will affect everyone, not just older workers, Ormsby said.
A rapidly aging population presents other risks as well. Hunger and nutrition are major concerns, Ence said, as 8 percent to 10 percent of the state’s elderly population currently go to bed hungry. Housing shortages are also a looming risk. The state needs to take inventory of the housing stock and make sure it can meet the needs of people as they age.
“You need lots and lots of opportunity for people to stay in their own homes and that may mean we need to make an effort to adapt the current housing stock,” Ormsby said.
Isolation of aging citizens is also a potential problem.
“If you don’t have the ability to keep people connected in society — spiritually, mentally, emotionally, physically — they wither,” Ence said. About 10 percent of the eligible population in the state take advantage of senior centers operated by counties, but the state needs more programs, plans and communities designed to help older people leave their homes, Ence added.
Appropriate healthcare and economic security are also immediate concerns as Utahns age. And the work to address all these issues has barely scratched the surface.
“If you don’t address those issues early enough, they can become devastating,” Ence said. “Right now we are barely keeping our heads above water and it’s only going to get harder.”
Ormsby, who previously worked in the state’s Division of Aging and Adult Services, agrees. Most adults are independent and healthy into their mid-80s. The oldest group of baby boomers started turning 85 in 2011, and boomers will continue turning 85 non-stop for the next 20 years.
“We can either get out in front of that wave, we can paddle and we can surf the thing beautifully, or we can wait until the thing crashes on top of us,” he said.
With that in mind, Ence, who took over at the Commission in Aging in May of this year, is expanding and re-envisioning the goals and purpose of the original Utah 2030 project.
The first step was securing new funding. The commission, which was slated to end in 2017, now has money to last through 2027.
The second step was extending the planning timeline, with policies, programs and proposals now focused on what the state’s demographics are projected to be between now and 2050.
“We need to look at that over and over again and continually look over the 50-year horizon to prepare for the next generation,” Ence said.
In order to prepare for the next generation and beyond, the commission has identified four areas of focus going forward to help meet and expand on the mandate of the original Utah 2030 project.
First, a new public policy strategy.
“We want to be a constant pulse to the Legislature at all levels, offering advice and information about the implications of proposed policy on an aging society,” Ence said. “We want to help them make better decisions and eliminate barriers to the delivery of services.”
Second, the commission wants to make sure it has the most current research, Ence said, including demographic studies and best practices from other states and municipalities.
Third, Ence is hoping to improve community outreach including engaging the business community and developing partnerships with relevant associations to increase dialogue and information-sharing.
“There are efficiencies if we combine our efforts,” Ence said.
Finally, the commission plans to update its communications strategy, including revamping the website and ramping up its social media presence.
The issue is complex, Ormsby said, but an aging population is nothing to be afraid of.
“Sometimes we think about the aging of America as a problem to be solved when, mostly, it’s an opportunity to be embraced,” he said.
Ence agrees. More than anything, he hopes that these new efforts will encourage Utahns at every stage of life to prepare for their own aging and the aging of those around them, including exercising healthy living and economic prudence.
“With all the contingencies you have, sometimes your resources fall short and we have to be prepared to help each other in those situations,” Ence said. “You will be cared for some day or you will be caring for someone. We need to be aware of what’s going on and we need to buy in to the idea that we all need to work together as we age — period.”
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