Jobs optimism continues to fuel positive attitude

All the good news about the job market in Utah is having its effect on how consumers feel about their economic outlook. In December, the number of Utahns who believed jobs are hard to get dropped to 8 percent — the lowest number in over a year — and that helped drive the Zions Bank Utah Consumer Attitude Index (CAI) up 2.1 points to 119.1. The year-over-year CAI is now up 3.3 points. By comparison, the national Consumer Confidence Index decreased 0.3 points to 126.5 at the end of the year.{mprestriction ids="1,3"}

The Utah Present Situation Index, a sub-index of the CAI, rose 3.6 points to 133.4 in December, driven by the two-percentage-point drop in job availability pessimism. Utahns also believe business conditions are favorable with 95 percent feeling that business conditions are either good or normal. The Utah Present Situation Index has increased 1.3 points since December 2018.

Another CAI sub-index, the Utah Expectations Index, edged up by one point to 109.5 in December. Job availability was once again a bright spot as Utahns’ expectations improved compared to November. In December, 12 percent of Utahns believed that there will be fewer jobs available six months from now, a 3 percent drop from last November.

Utah consumers are also more optimistic about their personal household income increasing, with 39 percent of thinking that their income will increase in the next six months, compared to 33 percent who held that expectation a year earlier.

Consumers’ positive perceptions regarding the job market are supported by strong fundamentals. The Utah Department of Workforce Services announced recently that Utah’s unemployment rate just dropped to the lowest level ever recorded in Utah at 2.4 percent, compared to the nationwide unemployment rate of 3.5 percent. Job growth in Utah held steady at 3.3 percent, more than twice the national rate of 1.5 percent.

“It’s heartening to see such strong numbers regarding Utah’s job market,” said Scott Anderson, Zions Bank president and CEO. “Forbes just ranked Utah as the third-best state in the nation for business in 2019. And earlier this year, U.S. News ranked Utah as the fourth-best state in the nation overall. The good signs for Utah’s economy keep coming and that bodes well for our residents.”

Economic uncertainty inhibited some growth in 2019, as The Wall Street Journal noted in Decumbent. Some of the largest contributors to uncertainty in the United States and around the world have been trade tensions and Brexit.

“Global markets play an important role in Utah’s economy,” said Randy Shumway, chairman and partner of Cicero Group, a management consulting firm that does data collection and analysis for the CAI. “In 2018, international imports and exports equaled 16.6 percent of Utah’s GDP. That’s up 1.2 percent since 2017. Having more predictable international markets will allow businesses to plan and compete more aggressively.”{/mprestriction}