Solar goal: 20% of U.S. production by 2030

By Brice Wallace 

With sunny skies outside and optimism inside, proponents of solar energy outlined a plan last week calling for solar to provide one-fifth of U.S. electricity generation by 2030.

Kicking off the Solar Power International gathering of about 20,000 people at the Salt Palace Convention Center, organizers declared the time until 2030 to be the “Solar+ Decade.” The goal of 20 percent compares with solar power being currently only 2.4 percent of the nation’s energy mix.{mprestriction ids="1,3"}

The energy industry of the future will be “clean,” said Julia Hamm, president and CEO of the Smart Electric Power Alliance (SEPA), which also has a goal of carbon-free energy production by the year 2050.

“It’s interesting to note that for young generations, clean energy is not an option. It’s an expectation,” Hamm told the crowd. “The cultural battle is being won by the simple reality of new generations with new attitudes. Solar, wind, storage and other technologies we’re all here to talk about this week are not the alternative anymore. They are becoming the default.”

Proponents of the goal cite solar power’s growth rate as a reason for optimism. Solar accounted for less than 2 gigawatts of U.S. power generation at the end of 2009 but now is at over 69 GW. Over the past decade, the solar industry experienced an average annual growth rate of more than 50 percent. The industry now employs 242,000 people and generates $17 billion in annual revenue.

And while 2.4 percent may seem like a low generation figure, in 1999 solar accounted for only 0.008 percent of total U.S. electricity.

That growth has been aided by the solar Investment Tax Credit (ITC). Since its implementation in 2006, it has helped create more than 200,000 American jobs, added $140 billion in private-sector investment and grown solar deployment by 10,000 percent. The ITC is scheduled to begin stepping down at the end of this year, but an extension would spark $87 billion in new private-sector investment and add 113,000 American jobs over baseline estimates by 2030, according to 10-year forecasts released last week by (SEIA) and Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables.

The industry expects $345 billion will be invested in solar development over the next decade, reaching $53 billion annually through the deployment of 500 GW. Solar devices will be installed on more than 14 million rooftops by 2030, when the industry is expected to have 600,000 employees. More than half of all commercial solar capacity in the U.S. has been installed during the past three years. Corporate solar deployment is 23 times larger than it was 10 years ago.

Reaching the 20 percent goal would enable solar to provide enough power to replace 150 coal power plants, backers say.

In Utah, more than 6 percent of electricity comes from solar sources — three times the national average — and the state has more than 6,000 people working in solar jobs. A recently released report compiled by Frontier Group and the Environment America Research & Policy Center ranked Utah ninth among states for the increase in annual solar power generation between 2008 and 2017, when it grew by 2,262 gigawatt-hours.

Proponents believe reaching the goal will reduce carbon emissions; provide economic opportunity through investment and job creation; and supply clean, abundant electricity for Americans.

“Let me be clear: The road to get to a carbon-free future will not be easy,” Hamm said. “It will take the collective effort of stakeholders not just in this room, not just in the U.S., but globally to be successful. … But we have to keep in mind that we can’t do that at all costs. We have to do that in a smart, thoughtful way that ensures that we maintain safe, affordable and reliable electricity for all people.”

Abigail Ross Hopper, president and CEO of the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA), noted that in 2000, the U.S. Department of Energy predicted solar would account for 2 GW in 2020 but it is on track to exceed 95 GW.

That growth in solar deployment is “almost inconceivable; it’s truly amazing,” Hopper said. “But I would posit, there’s not a single person in this room who thinks that’s good enough, we’ve done enough, let’s pack it up and go home.”

Tom Starrs, vice president of market strategy and policy at SunPower Corp., said solar and wind are competing financially with natural gas for new electricity generation. While optimistic about the future of renewables, Starrs acknowledged that solar and wind advocacy resources and political influence “lags way behind” that of the traditional energy industries.

“The coal and nuclear industries are effectively dead in terms of incremental additions to the electric grid, but they still deliver almost half of the electricity in the U.S. and their political influence remains substantial and hugely disproportionate to their growth potential,” he said, adding that natural gas has gained political and economic strength.

During a panel discussion, speakers said the solar industry faces obstacles in reaching its goal, including putting new technology on an aging grid infrastructure and changing an industry sector “that has been operating this way for 100 years.”

Hopper said the next decade “will be one of radical market transformation” for energy in the U.S. and called on conference participants to be part of it.

“We have a bold vision for the 2020s — a vision that will benefit your company,” she said. “There is enormous opportunity as politics change around tackling climate change and investing in clean energy, and working together, all of us, we can make the next decade the ‘Solar+ Decade.’”

David Bywater, president and CEO of Lehi-based Vivint Solar, said his children “can’t fathom a future that isn’t powered by clean, renewable energy.”

“Our not-so-distant future should be one that is powered completely by renewable energy,” he told the crowd. “We are the drivers of this revolution. We need to elevate our craft. We need to elevate this industry. We need to accelerate it. There is no better industry for us to champion, and I applaud your efforts collectively for what you’re doing.”

Details about the Solar+ Decade are at www.seia.org/solar-decade. SEIA’s plans for reaching the 20-percent goal is at www.seia.org/roadmap.{/mprestriction}