Optimism still strong; CAI rises in May

Utah consumers continue to be optimistic about their economic futures, based on the May edition of the Zions Bank Utah Consumer Attitude Index (CAI).

The index rose 0.9 points to reach 113.2 in May, hampered by the Present Situation Index dropping 0.3 points but fueled by a 1.7 point rise in the Expectations Index.

The CAI is up 2.5 points from a year ago, compared with the national Consumer Confidence Index jumping 4.9 points during that same period to reach 134.1.{mprestriction ids="1,3"}

Utah’s Present Situation Index in May was at 125.6 due to a 1 percent drop in the percentage of Utahns who feel jobs are plentiful. Utahns’ confidence in business conditions remains strong, with 61 percent indicating conditions are good. Despite the April-to-May decrease, the Present Situation Index has increased 3.9 points from a year ago, with more Utahns feeling business conditions are good and jobs are plentiful.

The Expectations Index reached 105.0 in May, with consumer expectations for all three key indicators improved. Expectations about job availability improved the most. As of May, 32 percent of Utahns feel jobs will be plentiful six months from now, a 7 percent increase from April. Also, 37 percent of Utahns expect their household income will increase in the next six months, the highest level since March 2018 and a 4 percent increase since April.

The Expectations Index also saw its first year-over-year rise since April 2018 as it ticked up 1.6 points since May 2018.

“It’s significant that Utahns are both positive about the state of Utah’s economy and optimistic about its future,” said Scott Anderson, Zions Bank president and CEO. “It shows consumers are confident going into summer.”

On the housing front, since November, a growing percentage of Utahns anticipate housing prices will continue to climb in the near future. Seventy percent now say housing prices will increase, one of the highest levels recorded since Zions Bank and Cicero Group began tracking consumer attitudes in January 2011 and the highest point since July 2018.

Still, many Utahns expect their incomes to keep pace with inflation: 32 percent say it is likely their household income will increase by more than the rate of inflation, while 30 percent feel it is equally likely and unlikely their income will match inflation.

“Real wages have been trending up around the country and in Utah,” said Randy Shumway, chairman and partner of Cicero Group, a Salt Lake City-based management consulting firm that does analysis and data collection for the CAI.

“Even though price levels have been rising across Utah, we’re also seeing stronger wage growth. We expect that trend to continue, especially with the sustained job growth and lowest unemployment rate we’ve seen in Utah for over a decade. The situation appears healthy for Utah’s workers.”{/mprestriction}