Today OK, but future a worry for consumers

A strong positive feeling for Utahns about their current situation — driven mainly by the strong jobs market — was offset in January by minor pessimism over the future, according to the Zions Bank Utah Consumer Attitude Index (CAI), released last week. The CAI decreased 1.9 points to 113.9 in January while the year-over-year index dropped 4 points. By comparison, the national Consumer Confidence Index decreased 6.4 points to 120.2 In January.{mprestriction ids="1,3"}

The Utah Present Situation Index slipped 1.1 points to 131 from December to January, while jumping 5.8 points from January 2018 to January 2019, mainly due to a large improvement in Utahns’ perception of the job market. A majority of Utahns — 63 percent — think jobs are plentiful right now, up 8 percent from January 2018. By comparison, only 8 percent of Utahns feel jobs are hard to get in today’s economy.

The Utah Expectations Index also dipped from December to January, decreasing 2.5 points to 102.5. Yet unlike the Present Situation Index, the Expectations Index declined from January of last year, sinking 10.6 points. While 27 percent of Utahns expect business conditions will get better in the next six months, 12 percent of Utahns feel they will get worse. The number of Utahns with a negative business outlook is up 8 percent from last year and at its highest level since December 2013.

The Present Situation Index and the Expectations Index are sub-indices of the CAI.

Much of Utahns’ uncertainty about the future of Utah’s economy could stem from their feelings about national economic prospects; 29 percent of Utahns believe it is unlikely that the U.S. economy will improve in the next 12 months, an increase of 4 percent since December and the highest point since November 2016. Similarly, the number of Utahns indicating that the federal government is doing a “poor job” with economic policy increased 12 percent since December, to 34 percent, the highest level since December 2017.

For the second consecutive month, Utahns’ confidence in stock market growth remained at a two-year low.

“The stock market’s recent volatility is impacting consumer attitudes across Utah,” said Scott Anderson, Zions Bank president and CEO. “But that doesn’t mean Utahns have given up on the stock market. About 41 percent of Utahns believe their 401(k) will yield a positive rate of return over the next year compared to 23 percent who think that a positive return is unlikely.”

An important factor regarding Utah consumer spending patterns is how much exposure consumers feel they might have to future conditions, according to Randy Shumway, chairman and partner of Cicero Group, a Salt Lake City research firm that does data collection and analysis for the CAI. 

“Although some Utahns feel that general business conditions will get worse, they also feel that their incomes are stable,” Shumway said. “This indicates that while there is concern about macro policy factors, individual consumers feel secure with regards to their personal economic situation.”

Ninety-five percent of Utahns believe their income will grow or stay the same over the next six months, the survey said.{/mprestriction}