Confidence wanes a little for consumers

Utah consumers seem to be losing a little confidence in both their present circumstances and the economy’s future. The Zions Bank Utah Consumer Attitude Index (CAI) decreased 6.4 points to 109.0 in April. More negative perspectives regarding both the present situation and future of the economy led to the decline.

Utah consumers seem to be losing a little confidence in both their present circumstances and the economy’s future. The Zions Bank Utah Consumer Attitude Index (CAI) decreased 6.4 points to 109.0 in April. More negative perspectives regarding both the present situation and future of the economy led to the decline.

Despite the declines since March, the CAI sits 3.4 points higher than its level 12 months ago. In comparison, the national Consumer Confidence Index decreased 1.9 points from March to April and sits at 94.2.

The Present Situation Index, a sub-index of the CAI that measures how consumers feel about current economic conditions, has fallen 10.0 points since March but remains 4.1 points higher than this time last year. Utahns believe the general business environment is less favorable compared to March, with 9 percent of Utahns rating general business conditions in their area as bad — a 1 percent monthly increase and a 2 percent increase since last year. Forty-eight percent of Utahns describe available jobs in their area as plentiful, a 1 percent decline since March, but a 7 percent increase since last year.

Expectations for the next six months decreased 3.9 points in April due to a more negative outlook on future business conditions. Compared to March, fewer Utahns think business conditions in their area will be better in six months, falling from 27 percent to 26 percent in April. However, the outlook for the labor market is slightly more positive, as 29 percent of Utahns think there will be more jobs available in their area six months from now — a five-point increase from March. Income expectations have improved slightly as well, with 5 percent of Utahns expecting their household income to be lower six months from now, representing a 3 percent decrease from March.

Wavering confidence in the economy was also reflected in opinions regarding the future value of personal retirement savings, with 32 percent of consumers believing $1,000 invested in their 401(k) is unlikely to be worth more than $1,000 a year from now, a 3 percent increase from March. Utahns are also slightly less confident in their housing investments compared to March, as 62 percent of Utahns believe the price of homes in their communities will increase, down from 67 percent.

“A strong economy in our state, buttressed by extremely healthy employment numbers and a thriving housing market, should offset economic concerns in Utah,” said Scott Anderson, president and CEO of Zions Bank.

Gas prices rose in April, but remain lower than they have been at this time of year compared to the previous three years. The average gasoline price in Utah stood at $2.26 last week, while the national average has reached $2.14 per gallon. Most consumers expect gasoline prices to continue rising over the next 12 months; 79 percent say gasoline prices will increase. Only 5 percent of Utahns expect gasoline prices to go down over the next year. These expectations come as oil prices have risen fairly steadily through the past three months. Brent crude oil futures were trading for about $45 per barrel last week, compared to $41 in March and $70 a year ago.

Consumers predict they will spend slightly less in the future, reflecting national retail spending which declined through the first quarter of 2016. Twenty-nine percent of Utahns are likely to purchase a major household item in the next 60 days, a 2 percent decrease from March. Additionally, 31 percent of Utahns believe it is likely they will be able to retire and maintain their living standards, a 9 percent decrease since March and a 7 percent decrease since last year.

As the presidential election season continues to heat up, satisfaction with the steps taken by the federal government to improve the overall economy of the U.S. fell slightly, with 10 percent of Utahns indicating belief that the federal government is doing a good job compared to 11 percent in March. Approval of the state government is relatively higher, with 38 percent of Utahns saying the state is doing a good job improving the overall state economy, representing a 2 percent decline from March.

Analysis and data collection for the CAI are done by the Cicero Group, a market research firm based in Salt Lake City.