Attitude index takes a record plunge in April

After a record high in March, consumer attitudes in Utah slipped a record amount in April, according to the Zions Bank Utah Consumer Attitude Index (CAI).

The index fell to 114.1 in April, with the 15.4-point decrease being the largest since Zions Bank and Cicero Group began tracking consumer attitudes in the state in 2011.{mprestriction ids="1,3"}

The decrease, the companies said, “suggests Utahns’ exuberance has rational limits.”

Still, the index is up 1.5 points since April of last year and compares with a national Consumer Confidence Index of 128.7 in April, which is 1.7 points higher than in March and 8.4 percent higher than a year earlier.

“We have seen a leveling-out of expectations in April,” said Randy Shumway, chairman and partner of Cicero Group, a Salt Lake City-based strategy and research firm. “I do not think this is Utahns saying things are getting worse. Rather, it appears to be a recognition that the economy has been so strong it is hard to imagine it getting even better. Utah consumers are saying, ‘Things are good and we expect the economy to remain that way.’”

The April index put the CAI above 110 for the 23rd consecutive month, marking nearly two years of positive economic sentiment within the state. The month’s measure is significant given it comes during a period of increased interest rates, stock market volatility, and significant global economic trade tensions — issues that can affect consumer sentiment broadly.

In April, the Utah Present Situation Index decreased 11 points to 123.2 while the Utah Expectations Index decreased 18.3 points to 108. Seasonal effects are partly responsible for the change, as statewide consumer sentiment has typically decreased from March to April, with March often one of the strongest performing months of the year.

Data from the monthly survey also indicates this month’s drop in the index is due to Utahns generally feeling more “normal” about the economy, as opposed to previous levels of significant positivity. Specific areas where expectations decreased include in perceptions of future job availability, household income and general business conditions.

More Utahns indicate that conditions will be “the same in the next six months” as opposed to better than they currently are, which suggests a general leveling of expectations.

In general, 58 percent of Utahns still feel that jobs are plentiful in Utah, the same as in March and an increase of 8 percent from April 2017. Also, 55 percent consider business conditions to be good, down 4 percent compared to March.

Utahns in general still maintain a positive outlook, with those feeling that future economic conditions will improve outnumbering by more than four to one those who think conditions will worsen by more than four to one.

“The job growth rate in Utah was the highest in the nation last month, at 3.3 percent,” said Scott Anderson, president and chief executive officer of Zions Bank. “That type of growth indicates a vibrant economy, and this growth continues to fuel positive economic sentiment within the state.”{/mprestriction}